Anthropic Sets Its IPO Range at $70 to $78

SAN FRANCISCO, Nov. 10 — AnthropicAnthropic set the terms of its stock market debut on Tuesday: 825 million Class A shares at $70 to $78 each, a sale worth $57.75 billion to $64.35 billion before the underwriters take any extra shares, by our arithmetic. The company filed the range with the S.E.C. at 6:29 a.m. Eastern and launched its roadshow the same day.

The amended prospectus also fills in a number the previous draft had left blank. Anthropic’s run-rate revenue was “approximately $81 billion as of October 31, 2026, up $10 billion from September 30, 2026,” it says.Run-Rate RevenueThe filing’s own definition: consumption-based fees for the trailing 28 days, multiplied by 13, plus monthly subscription fees, multiplied by 12. It is an annualized estimate, not revenue under GAAP.

That is the number that has to carry the price. After the offering and a private placement that follows it, Anthropic would have 13,086,672,593 shares outstanding at the $74 midpoint, by the filing’s count, worth about $968 billion, by our arithmetic. The count moves with the price, because the placement is fixed in dollars. CNBC, counting on a fully diluted basis, put the company’s possible worth at up to $1.405 trillion, up from the $965 billion valuation Anthropic announced in a funding round in May.

The filing’s own accounts are less flattering. Anthropic reported revenue of $33.2 billion for the nine months through Sept. 30, and a net loss of $104.0 billion, of which $94.3 billion came from changes in the fair value of convertible notes, derivative liabilities and similar instruments, driven mainly by its rising valuation. It has agreed to spend about $900.9 billion, “substantially all of which is related to compute and infrastructure,” most of it over years to come; about $186.2 billion of its contractual obligations are subject to termination rights or conditions that must be met first, the filing says.

Anthropic has applied to list the shares on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the symbol “ANT.” It is itself selling 801,351,354 of them. The other 23,648,646 come from its seven co-founders, the only selling stockholders: Dario Amodei, Daniela Amodei, Tom Brown, Jack Clark, Jared Kaplan, Sam McCandlish and Christopher Olah are each selling 3,378,378 shares, about $250 million apiece at the $74 midpoint, by our arithmetic. Anthropic receives none of that money. The underwriters, led by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, have an option to buy up to 123,750,000 more shares from the company.With the OptionAt $78, the full 948,750,000 shares, option included, would come to about $74.0 billion, by our arithmetic.

The suppliers are buying too. Immediately after the offering, and subject to conditions, Advanced Micro Devices, Broadcom, Google, Micron, Microsoft, Nvidia and TSMC Partners will buy $26.0 billion of Anthropic’s Class N common stock at the offering price; at the midpoint, Google and Nvidia take about $10.0 billion each, Google’s purchase funding part of an investment it had already committed to make. Those shares are not subject to lock-up agreements with the underwriters, though they are restricted securities that may be resold only under an effective registration statement or an exemption, such as Rule 144. TSMC’s board on Tuesday approved buying up to $500 million of Anthropic’s common shares at its offering price, the same sum the filing assigns to TSMC Partners in the placement. Our analysis takes the placement apart.

Together, the offering and the placement would bring Anthropic net proceeds of about $84.6 billion at the midpoint, after underwriting discounts, which apply only to the Class A shares, and offering expenses, the filing says; about $93.7 billion if the underwriters’ option is exercised in full.

The terms are smaller than those in a copy of the filing that briefly reached banks on Monday, which Reuters reported showed about 866.7 million shares at $70 to $80, up to $69.3 billion, before a second email said the details about the pricing were inaccurate.

The Book

Anthropic plans to price the shares on Nov. 18 and begin trading on Nov. 19, CNBC reported, citing people familiar with the details. The same people said it is aiming to give about 20 percent of the shares to individual investors, and that its book “is already covered at the $70 to $78 per share range on an allocable basis.” Some members of Anthropic’s board and entities affiliated with them have indicated an interest in buying up to $303 million of the shares, the filing says, though such indications are not binding.The BanksThe prospectus cover names 22 underwriters, Goldman Sachs first, then Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan, Citigroup, Barclays and Wells Fargo Securities.

Late on Tuesday, Seeking Alpha reported that Anthropic’s bankers were considering raising the price range after strong investor demand, citing the Financial Times, which cited five people familiar with the matter. At 5:17 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday, no newer amendment had appeared on the S.E.C.’s EDGAR system.

Not every holder has been so sure. Last week, CNBC reported, some Anthropic investors were bracing for a lower valuation than expected, and shareholders told it that even $1.5 trillion was in doubt; one called the figure a “stretch.” The offering also goes out after two days of losses for Nvidia, one of the placement’s two largest buyers: it closed Tuesday at $168.89, down 5.47 percent, and 9.51 percent below Friday’s close.NVDANasdaq173.73▲4.84+2.9%Nvidia · Wednesday’s session

The Fine Print

The filing hedges its new figure.

Run-Rate Revenue is an operating metric, is not a substitute for revenue prepared in accordance with GAAP, and is not a forecast of future revenue.

Because the measure annualizes a short period, the filing warns, a reading taken in a season of higher or lower usage, such as holidays, may differ significantly, and it includes amounts from customers later found to be breaking Anthropic’s usage policy or commercial terms, whose revenue “would not be expected to recur.”

The amendment also reports a change in one of Anthropic’s computing contracts. Of the about $41.3 billion it agreed to spend with Lambda, an August agreement accounts for about $34.9 billion, and either party could end it if Lambda did not secure a facility lease by a set date. Lambda did not, the filing now says, and “as a result, the August 2026 agreement is currently terminable by either party.” Neither side has given notice, and “we do not currently intend to terminate the agreement,” Anthropic says.

Its risk factors add two passages. “Our models have in the past caused, and may in the future cause, harm by producing undesirable outputs or behaving in unintended, misaligned, or autonomous ways, including by taking unintended or harmful actions that no user or third party directed,” the amendment says. The earlier draft said Anthropic “may imminently meet” its Responsible Scaling Policy’s definition of “dramatically accelerated progress attributable to AI”; the amendment says it has determined that it has met that threshold, “based on what we expect from future models and our overall rate of progress, rather than on what we have observed from current models.”

OpenAI, Anthropic’s chief rival, told investors that its operating loss widened to $10.9 billion in the third quarter from $10.1 billion in the second, while its adjusted operating margin improved to minus 109 percent from minus 150 percent, The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday, citing documents it had viewed, according to Euronews.

In Australia, individual investors got their chance on Wednesday. Anthropic’s retail offer there opened at 10 a.m. Australian Eastern Daylight Time, 6 p.m. Tuesday in New York, and is expected to close at 5 p.m. on Nov. 17, according to a timetable published by the broker Stake, CNBC reported. After that come the pricing and, if CNBC’s sources are right, the first trade on Nov. 19.

Daily Cortex is written with AI models, including Anthropic’s Claude, and fact-checked with OpenAI’s GPT models.