What SoftBank Has Riding on OpenAI

TOKYO, Nov. 8 — SoftBankSoftBank Group has put $64.6 billion into OpenAI since September 2024, for about 13 percent of the company after its Oct. 1 payment, by its own count. On Tuesday, Nov. 10, at 3:30 p.m. in Tokyo, 1:30 a.m. in New York, it reports on the six months to Sept. 30, and says what that stake was worth at the end of September.

Its last quarter-end figure, for June 30, was $89.6 billion for the $44.6 billion it had then invested, a cumulative gain of $45.0 billion. Since then OpenAI has raised money at a higher price than SoftBank agreed to pay in February, Bloomberg News has reported.

In the year to March 31, SoftBank recorded ¥6,730.4 billion ($43.9 billion) of investment gains related to OpenAI, more than nine-tenths of its ¥7,286.5 billion of investment gains, by this paper’s arithmetic. It borrowed to pay for its newest OpenAI shares, and one $10 billion loan has terms that turn on what those shares are worth.

The Stake

By SoftBank’s figures, it had invested $2.2 billion in OpenAI by March 31, 2025. It added $7.5 billion in April 2025 and $22.5 billion in December 2025, in a round priced at $260 billion before the new money; with $2.4 billion of other investments, that made $34.6 billion by March 31, 2026. On Feb. 27 it agreed to invest $30 billion more at a pre-money valuation of $730 billion, in three tranches of $10 billion: on April 1, July 1 and Oct. 1, Japan time.Before the MoneySoftBank’s $730 billion leaves out the cash being raised. OpenAI’s round, announced in February, was $122 billion, SoftBank says; together they make $852 billion, the valuation after the money that this paper has reported. The last was paid on Oct. 1. SoftBank’s ownership figures leave out warrants held by the OpenAI Foundation. “OpenAI is a clear leader, with world-class technology and an unparalleled global user base, and we have strong conviction in its continued growth,” Masayoshi Son, SoftBank’s chairman and chief executive, said in February.

SoftBank holds the shares through its second Vision Fund and measures them at fair value every quarter, with any change booked as an investment gain or loss.The FundBy SoftBank’s count, SoftBank Vision Fund 2 had $131.1 billion of cumulative returns on $109.8 billion of investments on June 30, before third-party interests, taxes and expenses. The OpenAI shares it bought this year are preferred shares that convert automatically into common stock if OpenAI lists. On March 31 it put their fair value at $79.6 billion, against $34.6 billion of cost. On June 30 the figure was $89.6 billion, on $44.6 billion of cost: the valuation was unchanged from March, SoftBank said, and it recorded no gain or loss on OpenAI in the quarter. On July 31, after the second tranche, the fund put the stake at $100 billion, on $55 billion of cost, both rounded.

To pay for the February commitment, SoftBank signed a $40 billion bridge facility with five banks on March 27. It drew $30 billion, and on Sept. 15 it prepaid the $25.9 billion still outstanding, it said. It paid for the last tranche with about $11.1 billion of dollar and euro notes priced on Sept. 24; the dollar notes pay 8.625 to 9.75 percent a year. The unused $10 billion of the bridge was canceled.

The loan to watch is $10 billion that a subsidiary of the second Vision Fund agreed to borrow on Aug. 5, guaranteed by SoftBank Group and due in August 2028, with cash-collateral and mandatory-prepayment clauses triggered by circumstances “such as a significant decrease in the fair value of the OpenAI preferred shares held by SVF2 and referenced under the loan agreement.” “The financing terms include margining provisions linked to changes in the valuation of OpenAI shares,” Yoshimitsu Goto, SoftBank’s chief financial officer, said on the August call, according to the company’s published record of the questions and answers.The LoanSoftBank said in August that the fund planned to draw the $10 billion that month. The collateral is a cash account; the OpenAI shares are not pledged, Mr. Goto said. Asked whether that left a buffer, he said: “Absolutely. We believe the buffer is more than sufficient.”

We believe the buffer is more than sufficient.

The Price

OpenAI’s price has climbed at each step SoftBank lists: $150 billion before the money in September 2024, $260 billion in March 2025, $500 billion implied by an employee share sale in October 2025 and $730 billion in February. In the quarter now being reported, Bloomberg News said on Sept. 29 that OpenAI was seeking around $1.4 trillion, not including the money raised. On Oct. 22, after the quarter ended, it reported a lower price, $1.25 trillion.

On Nov. 6 Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter, that OpenAI had closed about $11 billion of new funding at a $1.25 trillion valuation, after setting out to raise $30 billion or more at $1.4 trillion. CNBC confirmed the $11 billion that day and said OpenAI could raise up to an additional $9 billion in the coming weeks. Sarah Friar, OpenAI’s chief financial officer, said that “a good CFO always raises money when she can” and that the round is ongoing, CNBC reported. “The demand for AI is real,” she said.

CNBC reported on Oct. 22 that the talks were at a $1.25 trillion valuation before the new money; that is about 71 percent above the $730 billion pre-money valuation SoftBank agreed to in February, by this paper’s arithmetic. SoftBank has not said whether or how the round will change its own valuation. The people Bloomberg cited said SoftBank was in the round, and SoftBank declined to comment to Bloomberg. SoftBank’s English press-release index, checked on Nov. 8, lists no announcement of a further investment in OpenAI since Oct. 1, when it called the third tranche its final one.

SoftBank Group’s shares fell in each of the four Tokyo sessions of the election week, and on Friday, Nov. 6, closed at ¥3,549, down 10.83 percent on the day and 20.80 percent from ¥4,481 on Oct. 30. On the August call, Mr. Goto allowed that “our CDS spread has recently been somewhat higher than its historical levels,” though he called its funding costs “entirely manageable within our investment plan.” SoftBank put its adjusted holding-company loan-to-value ratio at 13.0 percent on June 30, a measure separate from this loan’s terms.The SpreadA credit-default swap’s spread is the yearly price of insuring a company’s debt against default. “CDS spreads are determined by the market,” Mr. Goto said.

Tuesday’s figures can show how SoftBank valued OpenAI on Sept. 30, and whether it booked a gain or loss on it in the quarter. The Sept. 30 valuation date comes before both the Oct. 1 tranche, which took the cost to $64.6 billion, and the November round, though the report may describe later events. Mr. Goto is scheduled to present them at 4:30 p.m. in Tokyo, 2:30 a.m. in New York.

Daily Cortex is written with AI models, including Anthropic’s Claude, and fact-checked with OpenAI’s GPT models.