The AI Industry’s Super PACs Lose Their Big Bet

WASHINGTON, Nov. 4 — TwoTwo super PACs tied to Leading the Future, the pro-industry AI network, spent $4.8 million from August through October to elect Darline Graham, the Republican running for the Senate in South Carolina. On Tuesday night Annie Andrews, a Democrat, beat her, the Associated Press reported.

Reports to the Federal Election Commission show American Mission, the network’s Republican arm, spending $2.29 million for Ms. Graham between mid-August and Oct. 9, and Building the Future, a committee registered on Aug. 30, spending $2.51 million between Oct. 15 and Oct. 29. That is more than the network reported for any other candidate but one: Alex Bores, a former New York lawmaker whom Think Big, its Democratic arm, spent about $8.2 million opposing in a House primary he lost in June.The Same FirmBuilding the Future reported raising nothing through Sept. 30. Its reports list its spending for Ms. Graham as payments to Prusik Partners, of Henderson, Nev., the firm Leading the Future paid $30,000 for consulting in October.

Politico, which reported the $4.8 million, called Building the Future “a new super PAC closely linked to LTF.” President Trump carried the state by 18 points in 2024, Politico noted.

The loss came as Democrats took both houses of Congress, which leaves the industry facing Democrats who are promising subpoenas. PBS published the AP’s reports of Democratic control of the Senate at 11:40 p.m. Tuesday and of the House at 1:27 a.m. Wednesday, Eastern time. “The House Democratic majority must make it a top priority to protect Americans’ jobs, freedom, and lives from AI billionaires,” Representative Greg Casar of Texas, who leads the Congressional Progressive Caucus, said in a statement on Tuesday, as quoted by Politico. Senator Ed Markey, in Politico, was blunter: “They are going to need to plant new forests for all of the subpoenas we’ll be printing.”

The Primaries

Most of the networks’ money went into primaries. Of $37.4 million in independent expenditures that Think Big, American Mission and Building the Future disclosed in 24- and 48-hour notices to the F.E.C. this cycle, $9.3 million was marked for general elections; for the two super PACs of Public First, the rival network that backs stricter rules, it was $1.1 million of $24.4 million. The count is Daily Cortex’s, from the commission’s bulk file of those notices and the election each committee named; the notices are not complete totals, and Public First’s two PACs had reported $25.2 million of independent expenditures through Sept. 30 in their regular reports.Other CountsThese are independent expenditures only: ads and mail bought for or against candidates. Transformer’s tracker, which counts differently, put the “pro-safety” side alone at $39.98 million, this paper reported on Oct. 23.

Politico described Public First as “tied to rival AI lab Anthropic.” Anthropic says it has given $40 million to Public First Action, a nonprofit distinct from the super PAC, and that the money “cannot be used to influence the election of any candidate for federal, state, or local office.” Public First Action has itself given the two super PACs millions: about $15.4 million to Jobs and Democracy in the first half of this year, including $48,985 in kind, and at least $4.85 million to Defending Our Values, by this paper’s count of their reports. The filings do not show whose money those payments were. Leading the Future is financed by Andreessen Horowitz’s co-founders, through $50 million from A16Z Capital Management, and by Greg Brockman, OpenAI’s president, and his wife, Anna, who gave $12.5 million each, its reports show.

Brad Carson, the former Democratic congressman who leads Public First, told Politico that Ms. Graham’s defeat shows that “being pro-data center can’t help you.” Mr. Bores, whom Jobs and Democracy spent about $13.2 million supporting in his primary, by this paper’s count of the notices, went further, as quoted by Politico on election night: “Allying with the worst parts of the AI industry is just kryptonite for a campaign, and the results tonight double down on that.”

The Rest of the Card

The industry’s side had wins. Jared Moskowitz, a Florida Democrat whom Think Big spent $309,574 backing in his primary, beat Scott Singer in the 25th District; the AP called the race at 8:07 p.m. Mr. Singer had the support of $857,426 from Defending Our Values, Public First’s Republican arm, in his own primary. Harriet Hageman, whom American Mission backed with $333,254 in July, ahead of Wyoming’s Aug. 18 primary, won Wyoming’s Senate seat, the AP reported.

Some of the safety side’s late money landed. Jobs and Democracy, Public First’s Democratic arm, spent $599,445 on ads against the Republican congressman in Colorado’s Eighth District in October; the Democrat, Manny Rutinel, beat him, and the AP called the race at 11:49 p.m. Guardrails Alliance, a pro-regulation super PAC, spent $115,000 against Senator Jon Husted of Ohio, who lost to Sherrod Brown, the AP reported. Its founder, Shaunna Thomas, said, as quoted by Politico, that “the story could not be clearer” about “the role that the revolt against data centers played.”

How much the PACs mattered is another question. Voters ranked government corruption and the cost of living as crucial more often than “artificial intelligence data centers,” according to The AP Voter Poll, and the AP noted that Mr. Trump supported Ms. Graham “despite concerns about her candidacy.” Leading the Future had published no statement on the results by early Wednesday that Daily Cortex could find.

The next accounting comes on Dec. 3, when the committees’ post-general reports are due, covering activity through Nov. 23: the first regular reports required to show what they raised after Oct. 14.

Daily Cortex is written with AI models, including Anthropic’s Claude, and fact-checked with OpenAI’s GPT models.